I Fear For Rugby's Future

THIS WEEK Rugby Union celebrated the 25^th anniversary of the game going Open. Note that small point – open, not professional. I think a lot of people have, over the past 25 years, failed to make that distinction.

Looking back over that quarter century, I doubt if many people in the wider Scottish Rugby family would accept, the good people running the game up here since August, 1995, have failed on many occasions to be either open or professional, so perhaps the best we can hope for is, that they perform better over the se4cond quarter century of open rugby than they have over the first.

I certainly hope, in the aftermath of Covid-19, which I think we will look back on from future years as a game changer, we see a better game evolving from the current mess. But, I am not holding my breath.

It is probably fair to say that, when the decision to go open was made, it caught the SRU on the hop, and they didn't react at all well to the decision. I seem to recall the members of the committee awarded themselves nice big expenses packages, the shit from which hit the fan in a big way some miles down that particular road.

Then there was the still-simmering clubs v districts debate. This was won by the pro-districts lobby, led by Jim Telfer, but, some on the clubs side have to this day refused to admit defeat. This clan war will I feel run for as long as we have rugby in Scotland, we Scots more than living up to Principal Seymour Skinner's description of us as: “a contentious people.”

Where has all this in-fighting got us? Well, for me, we are still where we were in the amateur days – not quite top drawer, but, probably at the top of the second tier of world rugby countries.

In 105 Five Nations tournaments, we won a mere five outright a 4.8% success rate. Only ne of these five, 1999, was achieved in the open era. We have yet to win the Six Nations, so overall, our performance in the professional era is one win in 24 events, a 4.2% success rate.

In the three Rugby World Cups of the Amateur era, we finished: top eight, fourth and top eight again – using the roughest arithmetic – an average placing of 6.7. In the five RWCs of the Open era we have finished in the top eight four times, and, in 2019, in the top 12. Again, by the crudest arithmetic, we have on average finished ninth.

Maybe we have not exactly slipped back in the past 25 years, but, we have surely not adapted as well to the demands and changing landscape of Open rugby, as have some of our peers.

It is generally accepted that Open rugby has seen a drop-off in playing numbers at community or grass-roots level. Scotland has not been immune from this, and it could be argued, we have suffered more than most nations.

I put this down to the rise of the professional sports administrator. Ok, your average club player or official didn't like the notion of Wee Tam from the club next door, just because he had got himself in among “the blazers” who ran the game in their spare time, making some money from the game through expenses, and getting his nose into the SRU entertainments trough. So, we saw the power of the committee neutered and full-time, paid officials, brought in to do the work Tam and his like had previously done.

But, over time, instead of being what the small number of paid officials inside Murrayfield, of the Amateur era – who were a sort of SRU Civil Service, who generally did the Elected officials' bidding – we suddenly had The Junta of Paid officials running things, and presenting the Elected officials with fait accompli.

“We suggest you do this, is that ok?” has seemingly become: “We've done this, ok.” This grates somewhat. Getting back to “we suggest” would make the landscape of Scottish rugby a bit calmer.

The likes of John Law or Bill Hogg would have run a mile to avoid being on the sports pages of our newspapers, or on TV. To be fair to him, TCD, for what I feel are different reasons, is equally loathe to be the public face of the game, but, then, he's got our Dom, who just loves himself, to do that. In any case, I get the impression, TCD doesn't see how he should explain or justify his actions to lesser beings such as journalists, Council members, or club officials.

No, the SRU has hardly covered itself in glory over the past 25-years, and, given the long-term affect of Covid-19, I don't see much improvement in the short term.

I LISTENED to BBC Shortbread's coverage of last night's Edinburgh v Glasgow Warriors game. Well, I did until I nodded off early in the second half. When not even Peter Wright can keep me awake, we are in a bad place.

As I see it, this was a glorified pre-season game. The players have been out of action for so long, and really, getting them back at this time to play in a cobbled-together artificial end to a fractured season achieved little. It's all so artificial, the two games simply did not inspire me.

For me, if we stagger, slowly and uncertainly back to some kind of new normality, post-Covid, then I am afraid full-time professional rugby will die. The only level of Rugby Union which has a chance of consistently making money is the international game, and, until we find a vaccine to wipe-out Covid, true international rugby is a no-no.

I don't know what the short-term answer is, but, the future for our game looks very bleak indeed

I would like to think that the great brains inside the major unions were seriously looking at what the game will look like post-Covid, but, I fear it's the old story – they are up to their arses in alligators, so not too concerned about draining the swamp.

I really am depressed at the moment.

One pod - Two peas - Which will be sweeter today?

LIKE (I think) most people in the extended Scottish Rugby family, I am not over-joyed at our two full-time professional teams being centrally-owned by the Scottish Rugby Union.

OK, some regular readers of this blog will do their blood pressure no good by reading that paragraph. Others will doubtless go off on a btl rant about SRU control freakery etc. Well we have had all those discussions and the fact is, the situation is what it is, and I do not see Edinburgh and Glasgow being freed from Murrayfield control any time soon.

With the sides due to clash at Murrayfield this afternoon, in the first rugby match in Scotland for ages, it is maybe a time to look at the current position – something big David Barnes did in his latest The Offside Line posting. This has quickly become rather controversial, and I shall return to it, after name-checking another blog.

Kevin Miller at the excellent On Top Of The Moon, Glasgow Warriors unofficial website, has a post up which suggests, perhaps, the SRU are getting it just about right.

Kevin has produced an interesting depth chart, comparing the two squads, which looks like this:

• Glasgow has a 43-man squad

• Edinburgh has a 40-man squad

• Glasgow squad average age is 26.6 years

• Edinburgh squad average age is 26.8 years

• Glasgow has 10 players – 23% - aged 30+

• Edinburgh has 8 players – 20% - aged 30 +

• Glasgow has 11 players – 26% - aged Under-23

• Edinburgh has 9 players – 22.5% - aged Under-23

• 26 Glasgow players – 60% - have been capped

• 22 Edinburgh players – 55% - have been capped

• The capped Glasgow players have an average 24 caps

• The Edinburgh players have an average 17 caps

• Glasgow has 19 – 44% - of the squad Academy graduates

• Edinburgh has 19 – 47.5% - of the squad Academy graduates

• Glasgow has 15 players – 35% - of their squad recruited from another top league

• Edinburgh has 12 players – 30.5% - of their squad recruited from another top league

• Glasgow has 9 players – 21% of their squad recruited from a lower level league

• Edinburgh has 9 players – 22.5% of their squad recruited from a lesser league

• Glasgow has 36 players – 84% of their squad Scotland-qualified

• Edinburgh has 30 players – 75% of their squad Scotland-qualified

• Glasgow's squad is drawn from 5 different nations

• Edinburgh's squad is drawn from 4 different nations

Two clubs, common owner, very similar structure. However, after a few years of Glasgow being the top dogs, there is now a suggestion that Edinburgh has taken over – this afternoon may, or may not, sort this out for the moment.

But, as Big Barney suggests, maybe Edinburgh have been, of late, better coached than Glasgow. Not that the now departed Dave Rennie wasn't a good coach, perhaps one of these cases which you see in sport where a good coach in one league cannot quite cut it in another. We see this in football, why not rugby?

 

Danny Wilson - into the firing line tonight

Certainly, expectations, not least from their fans, will weigh heavily on new Warriors' Honcho, Danny Wilson, particularly this afternoon.

I am looking forward to the game today, not least to a potential line-out battle between Andy Davidson, flung straight into the Edinburgh line-up following his move along the M8, and old school and club partner Scott Cummings. The two Kelvinside Academials will surely knock lumps out of each other, then share a couple of beers afterwards – old school rugby indeed.

I am sorry that Darcy Graham isn't in the Edinburgh XV, he lights up every match he plays. Being a West Coast man, I am also quite happy about this, it has to be said.

Expect a lot of mistakes in the match, given how rusty the players will be, and I am sure, with the new law interpretations at the breakdown, wee Mikey Adamson is in for a busy 80 minutes. But, it is good to see rugby back, even without spectators.

Spectators – speaking of which, can I ask what the fuck is going on around plans to allow spectators in to the Edinburgh v Glasgow game, at Murrayfield on Friday, 28 August.

I gather the attendance might be limited to just 700 fans. OK, our left-leaning SNP-led Scottish Government are showing the sort of Socialist control freakery which makes even the SRU Junta look like paragons of libertarian free spirits, but, 700 fans in a 67,000-capacity stadium. To me, that's ridiculous overkill.

But, more worrying is, the suggestion that the SRU will need 300 event staff to adequately run such a small show. I haven't seen such ridiculous over-policing of fans since the afternoon St Mirren gave notorious Hamilton Academical “Superfan” “Fergie” his own personal squad of four stewards for a game at Love Street.

If such a clamp down on freedom is going to be an early example of an Independent Scotland under the SNP, I just might return to the Conservative Party.

Disclaimer – I used to be a Tory, but, I think I am better now.

AS REGULAR followers of these haverings will be aware, I supplement the old pension with sporting obituaries for the mainstream media. It is a task I enjoy, there are some good, near-forgotten stories out there.

Well this week, I filed an obituary to the only Scottish newspaper which still takes obits from freelances, on former All Blacks fitness guru Jim Blair.

Jim, who died in Australia, aged 85, was not really a rugby man – he was, as befits a Shettleston man, a footballer in his youth. But, when you have the likes of former AB's coach John Hart and the legend that is Grant Fox singing his praises, well, he clearly had a big impact on Rugby Union. Fox by the way, was an enormous help to me in compiling the obituary, great to learn legends can be humble and helpful like the rest of us.

 

Grant Fox - so normal, he even helped-out Aristotle

But, while waiting until the obituary appears – it's in a somewhat lengthy queue at the moment, I must share one wee snippet. Jim Blair died from complications following a broken hip.

He sustained that injury, attempting to escape from the care home in which he had been placed because of his Dementia. As the saying goes: “Ye can tak the boay oot o' Shettleston, ye canny tak Shettleston oot o' the boay.”

At Last, Something To Comment ON

NOT BEING into publishing rumour and innuendo much, I thought I would haud ma wheesht concerning Scottish Rugby, until after part one of the 2020 SRU AGM.

That having passed quietly yesterday morning, I can now get back to the blogging front line. As I thought they might, the cautiously conservative leaders of our clubs baulked somewhat at the thought of having two mavericks at the head of the organisation.

 

Ian Barr - confirmed as SRU President

Ian Barr, they think they could handle, ditto Keith Wallace; but, Ian as President, with Keith as VP – that was always going to be a hard sell. Therefore, I was not overly-surprised when Colin Rigby, who it has to be acknowledged, was the Establishment's preferred candidate, got the nod, albeit by a narrow majority.

Elsewhere, Gerry Tosh, Eric Hugh, Bobby Frazer and Jim O'Neill had their Council places, as representatives of their various constituencies, confirmed. So, we have a somewhat change Council going forward, it will be interesting to see how big a change this proves to be.

David Barnes, in The Offside Line, called the virtual AGM: “a box-ticking exercise,” which is a good summing-up. The fireworks, which we gentlemen of the press always hope for at such meetings, will probably come in part two – whenever that is held.

But, for the moment, the new Council has some weeks in which to get acquainted and to settle down to what is going to be a very hard road in getting the game anywhere near back to “normal,” whatever the new normal might be.

I happily watched the return of Gallagher Premiership rugby, on BT Sport on Friday night, and again yesterday. I fear, however, I might not see, real live, real rugby – at club level, much before the spring of next year.

Good to see James Lang starting for Harlequins on Friday night; and to have confirmed, the long break has not allowed common sense of intelligence to bore through into Joe Marler's head. How I long for some English referee adopting the George Murray approach to dealing with Marler.

For those who don't know the story, Kelso referee Murray's penultimate act as a referee was to penalise Langholm's Cyril Johnstone. When the bold Johnstone enquired: “What was that for George?” he was told: “For 20 years of cheek from you Cyril.”

Just a suggestion Wayne Barnes.

Good too, to see Stuart Hogg showing his class with a scintillating try for Exeter; to see Jonny Gray making an immediate impact, and Sam Hidalgo-Clyne producing a crisp cameo off the bench in the same Exeter v Leicester match, where Matt Scott had a good first outing for the visitors.

Lesser-known Scots, Calum Hunter-Hill, for Saracens, and Jake Kerr, for Leicester, also showed up well in the games – there is certainly a lot of Scottish interest nowadays in England's top flight.

But, the talking point so far – and I write before the Sunday games – has been the high number of penalties awarded, mostly at the breakdown, which is being refereed (at last) according to the Laws.

It will take a week or two for things to settle down, but, either the clubs will kick-up such a stink in the corridors of power, that the referees are “encouraged” to back off; the coaches will work-out new means of bending the Laws, or, least likely – the players learn sense. Time will tell.

I am still not sure if I am entirely happy with the artificial crowd noises, but, fair play to the guys putting those tapes together, they are doing a great job.

THERE is an interesting wee piece available on line, on the Welsh Dai-Sport site, about Ieuan Evans' efforts to get onto the WRU Council. Seemingly, when it comes to electoral jiggery-pokery, the Murrayfield Junta could perhaps take lessons in smoke and mirror manipulation from the boyos in Cardiff.

I am increasingly coming to the conclusion, rugby, going forward, will see greater diversion in governance and even I would suggest, in the Laws, between the professional elite level game and the grass roots community game – with also sorts of bothers and concerns around the part of the game which is a bridge between the two.

Sadly, very few people appear to be addressing this, and, the storm is coming.

I could not post this offering, without noting the passinglast weekend of the great Iain Laughland, one of the stars of the Scotland teams I watched as a schoolboy.

 

Iain Laughland with the Calcutta Cup, after captaining Scotland to

a 6-3 victory, at Murrayfield, in 1966 

Iain, a Merchistonian, was London Scottish through and through, serving the club as player and administrator over more than half a century. He played for and captained Scotland, and became President of the SRU.

He was a giant of our game, who will be sadly missed.

Another Scot passed recently, who had a profound effect on the game. He was Jim Blair, a Glaswegian graduate of the Scottish School of Physical Education at Jordanhill College, who emigrated to New Zealand, where his fitness drills are credited with helping the All Blacks win the 1987 Rugby World Cup; and were quickly copied by every other country.

The SRU even invited him home in 1990, where he gave several master classes on his fitness plans, which were well-received by those lucky enough to be in attendance.

Big hitters in New Zealand, such as former AB's coach John Hart and the legend that is Grant Fox, were fulsome in their tributes to Jim who died, aged 84, after a battle with Dementia, at his daughter's home on Australia's Gold Coast.

The Naysayers Won't LIke It, But S6 Is Here To Stay

THAT GREAT friend and reader of this blog, TCD, held a press briefing on Thursday. Once again, Aristotle didn't make the cut of acceptable journalists, allowed to hear first-hand, the thoughts of oor ain Ayatollah. Never mind, I have grown accustomed to being overlooked by The Junta. However, for their information, I have not gone away during lockdown, merely decided, since I have nothing meaningful to add to what little debate there is ongoing, I will simply haud ma wheesht.

I was pleased to see him mention the FOSROC Super6, and confirm the unloved child of Scottish Rugby still has a place in the grand scheme of things, and a future. I still maintain, in the “new normal” of the post-pandemic world, S6 will become increasingly important to the good health of Scottish Rugby. If Murrayfield gets it right.

Indeed, if they don't make the necessary changes to the general format of our game, well, we will be at the furthest extreme of Shit Creek, without a paddle. I am increasingly coming to the conclusion, the template we ought to be looking at is -

• A pyramid, with the Scotland team at the top (Level 1)

• Three full-time pro teams: Edinburgh, Glasgow, London Scottish (Level 2)

• Super 10 – semi-pro teams (Level 3)

• District Leagues – with players allowed reasonable expenses (Level 4)

• The Community game, strictly amateur, playing in more-localised leagues (Level 5)

I would suggest the community game plays to amended Laws, designed to encourage running rugby and dissuade bissh-bash-bosh type brute force and ignorance rugby.

There is strong anecdotal evidence, that PRO14 sponsors Guinness, would be over the moon if they could see a PRO14 side playing in London. I gather some of the power brokers at Scottish have been sounded-out about becoming that team and the vibes are positive. However, there are some obstacles to overcome, not least, where they will play now they will be leaving Richmond Athletic Ground.

I hear, if it happens, it could take as long as three or four years to bring everything together.

I have always felt, the long-term aim of S6 was to expand this league. The fall-out from the pandemic may actually hasten this, but, if/when we go to Super10, they will need to go about it with a bit more control and good sense than they showed with S6.

Ideally, S10 will see:

• One team in the North Region

• One team in the Midland Region

• Two teams in Edinburgh and the Lothians

• Three teams in the West of Scotland

• Three teams in the Borders

I do not see club rugby, below S6, resuming any time soon, indeed, it could well be Spring 2021 before full-blown club rugby resumes. Initially, we will probably see it resuming at District level, and, I am certain, if the proposed District Leagues, which is wher we will probably restart, are as successful as they could be, well that will surely strengthen the hands of those, and you can count me int his group, who see fewer National leagues and a more District-focussed club game, as the way forward.

But, that's just my view, I am sure there will be plenty of differing opinions out there.

SPEAKING of the machinations of TCD and The Junta. Is it only me, or, is anyone else wondering what all they are seeking to hide with their carry-on over the AGM?

I have raised the point repeatedly, if football's Old Firm, with their hundreds of small shareholders, can successfully hold their annual meetings inside the 60,000-capacity Celtic Park, and the 50,000-capacity Ibrox Stadium, why cannot they – even allowing for social distancing restrictions, hold the SRU's annual meeting inside the 67,500-capacity BT Murrayfield.

Given the bad press they have had over the past couple of years, surely the SRU could have held this year's meeting, with the delegates in the main stand and the high heid yins under a gazebo, on the pitch. Their failure to make these arrangements reinforces my belief – they are trying to hide something.

Time To Let The Lions Be

I BOW to nobody in my love for, and respect for the traditions and history of the British and Irish Lions. The Lions has been an occasional constant in the development of Rugby Union, but, I feel, now is the time to say: enough is enough, and relegate the Lions to the history of the game.

OK, maybe, like more than a few Scottish rugby men, I have fallen out of love with the Lions, because of the bias against Scots in recent squads. I admit, that has perhaps played a part in me reaching this sad decision. However, I can envisage a whole new landscape to the game in the wake of this global pandemic, and, I do not see a place for the Lions on that changed landscape.

The governance of the global game is evolving, in the wake of Covid-19. Realistically, until such times as we have an effective, proven vaccine to mitigate against the effects of Covid-19, we will not be able to get back to the old normal when it comes to even the pre-pandemic manner in which we administered and played domestic rugby – far-less the international element of the game.

The game's high heid yins might be planning a resumption later this month for the professional club game, and in October for the international end of things. But, suppose we see the current spike in cases in some parts of England spreading, what then? Back to lockdown and another false start.

Expectations are, there may be another spike in the second half of winter – just when we get the annual increase in influenza cases. That would kybosh the Six Nations. Unless, an effective vaccine is in-place by the spring of 2021 - and I am not prepared to hold my breath on that one – we would then see, either a cancellation/postponement of the 2021 Six Nations – or that tournament not being played until later in the year.

The knock-on effect of that would probably be to push back the Lions Tour to 2022. But, the 2022 off-season is already marked down by the northern hemisphere countries as the time in which they will begin to sort-out their squads for the 2023 RugbyWorld Cup, with the southern hemisphere nations, who will be expecting to host tours, similarly using these games to whittle down their World Cup extended squads.

Self-interest would surely dictate, a Lions Tour in 2022 would be an unwanted diversion from the planning for RWC 2023.

As I have said before, post-pandemic, Rugby Union will change, radically. Sure, the big English and French clubs will fight tooth and claw to preserve their positions, but, alone of all the world's rugby union nations, they are the only one where clubs appear to be more-important than country. World Rugby is trying very hard to make the international, rather than the club game paramount. They might not have right, but, they do have might on their side and I would expect them to win the arm wrestle.

This would see the international game becoming the main media selling point for rugby. If, or rather when that happens, the best, maybe the only chance the Lions would have of continuing would be if we were to see something akin to North American sports' All-Star game as a mid-season break. In which case it would be the Northern Hemisphere “Lions” v the pick of the Southern Hemisphere.

The fly in that ointment is the suggestion, that the South African provincial teams will switch from the southern hemisphere rugby championship to join an extended PRO14. But, if you have the top South African teams and players playing in the northern hemisphere competitions, it nullifies the concept of a Lions Tour to South Africa.

Why pay all that money to see a combined team playing teams you see on a regular basis in the course of a normal season. And, when money talks loudly enough, and the World Rugby plan for a global league comes to fruition, more-regular games against the3 Australians and All Blacks will dull the attraction of a Lions Tour every five or six years.

No, sadly, I must suggest. We let the Lions die a dignified death. Their day is past, but, what memories they leave us with.

And, since everyone else and his brother has been picking Lions Test teams of late, here is mine – chosen on the basis, a great player from one generation, would be a great player in any era.

Ken Scotland

x-x-x-x

Gerald Davies

Brian O'Driscoll

Mike Gibson

Tony O'Reilly

x-x-x-x

Barry John

Gareth Edwards

x-x-x-x

Ian McLauchlan

Colin Deans

Fran Cotton

x-x-x-x

Gordon Brown

Willie John McBride [Captain]

x-x-x-x

Lawrence Dallaglio

Fergus Slattery

Mervyn Davies