Can They Finally Nail "Bill" Down?

REGAINING possession of "Bill", as the Webb Ellis Trophy is known on both sides of the Tasman Sea is perhaps more an obsession than a cause to the inhabitants of 'The Land of the Long White Cloud', whose hosting of this seventh edition of the IRB Rugby World Cup kicks off today.

Rather like England with the football equivalent, the Kiwis, who consider themselves the guardians of rugby's flame, find it embarrassing that they have only won the thing once, and that was on home soil in 1987.

Of course, England's failure to add to their 1966 triumph is easily explained - they were lucky mince then, they've been ordinary mince ever since. The failure of the All Blacks to add to the Dave Kirk-inspired triumph in that inaugural World Cup is puzzling in the extreme. They have been the outstanding rugby team on the planet consistently since 1987, but, for about a month, every fourth year, they seem to lose it when the next tournament comes around.

Will it be any different this time round? Well, everyone in New Zealand hopes so.

Realistically the All Blacks are, at worst, a three-to-one shot to lift the trophy; it is difficult to see anyone other than they, the Wallabies or the Springboks winning the thing - unless France, as they are wont to, but never quite manage to carry through, suddenly find inspiration when on the verge of elimination.

You can forget the other 16 nations, for varying reasons. Some, Namibia, Romania, Georgia, Russia, Japan, Canada, USA, Tonga, Fiji, Samoa don't have the depth of squad, experience or professionalism.

Others, Wales, Ireland, Scotland, Argentina, Italy lack the X-factor - but could go far if they get the breaks - then, there is England.

Every other side's common enemy have the players, they have the money, they have the history, but, they will not win it. The sheer mental pressure, from the abuse they will take from all sides in New Zealand, from the unrealistic expectations of their own media and fans and from having to justify, on the world stage, the hype and build-up of that same media, which is simply licking their collective lips at the chance to put the boot into the failures, means, England will fail - and all hell with break loose.

In fact, I have a funny feeling Scotland will beat them in that final pool game in Auckland. Never mind, "Johnno" can always stay in his second home in King Country, "Wilko" will go back to France and making money, Tindall, Shaw and Thompson can retire, leaving the rest to pick up the pieces.

I do, however, feel, beating England might be our high point. But, on the basis that, some day we have to get lucky and beat the All Blacks, I quite fancy our chances of winning an All Blacks v Scotland final.

Well, a man can and has to dream.

But, realistically, I fancy the All Blacks to just beat the Aussies in the final.