Toony Might Not Have Lost The Dressing Room, He Has, At The Very Least, Misplaced The Key.

BACK last century, when I was Graham Speirs' spy in the alien world of Ayrshire Junior Football, where, if it moved – you kicked it; if it didn't move – you kicked it till it did: Wee Britney used to suggest I surveyed my domain from a cave, high on a bluff overlooking the blood-soaked plains.

All good knockabout stuff, but, like much of what, then and now, passes for football comment in Scotland – pure pish. Mind you Mr Speirs remains one of the few oases of good sense in his profession. These days, however, as I pontificate on matters rugby union, I should add, I still inhabit the same cave, and the battle-fields over which I now observe, remain equally blood-soaked as back then.

To come right up to date, and Wednesday's Scotland Squad announcement. I might not go as far as to suggest Gregor Townsend has “lost the dressing room,” but, I fear he has misplaced the key. However, as things stand, it's his key to lose.

That's the thing with “The Head Coach as God,” as long as things are going well, he's fine, but, when the seas get rough, things have a habit of going awry fairly quickly. Toony is in rough waters right now.

If we still had a selection committee, the blame for leaving-out one of our very-few genuinely world-class players could be passed around. We all remember the story of the star Welsh scrum-half, who was dropped from the national side following a defeat, but able to tell his team mates on the following Saturday – as The Western Mail called for the heads of the men who had dropped him – that every single selector had been in-touch to tell him: “I voted for you to keep your place Boyo!”

Strictly speaking, The Finnster has NOT been dropped. He did not go on the Summer Tour to Argentina, he has not started a Scotland game since we played Italy on 12 March, and his last appearance was a 14 minute cameo, with the match already lost, against Ireland on 19 March. Clearly the Head Coach has decided – we can do without Russell.

That's his decision – he has to own it. But, given, by a lang Scots mile, Finn is our best play-maker, our Number One goal kicker (33 of our 121 points in last season's Six Nations), Toony is taking a huge risk in leaving him out of the squad.

To be fair to Toony – he could have used the fact Russell would not be available for the first Autumn International, which falls outside the international window. He could have come up with a story along the lines of: “Finn cannot play in the first game, then his partner is due to deliver their first child, so, given they live in France, I will leave him out for these games,” but, he chose not to do that. Mind you, that line about finding form and fitness – come on, Liz Truss has come-up with more credible lines of late.

I fear, if we don't have a good Autumn, that shoogly nail on which Toony's jaiket is hanging at BT Murrayfield, will be a whole lot shooglier going into the Six Nations. We are approaching end game in the Townsend Reign.

In the next five months, Scotland will play nine internationals, the four Autumn games then the five fixtures in the 2023 Guinness Six Nations. Seven of these games are at BT Murrayfield.

Scotland is currently ranked sixth in the world. In calendar order, we will face home games against the sides ranked ninth, twelfth, fourth and eighth. We then go to Twickenham to face England (5), welcome Wales (7), to Murrayfield; travel to Paris to face second-placed France, before entertaining Number One-ranked Ireland back in Edinburgh, and signing-off the Six Nations against 14th-ranked Italy, back at Murrayfield.

Now, some of these rankings will alter over this period, but, realistically, the only two of these nine opponents we can confidently expect to beat are Fiji and Italy. We have, with home advantage, a reasonable chance of beating Australia, Argentina and Wales.

So, five wins out of nine games is the minimum we might expect from these upcoming games, if wee ar being optimistic – anything above that and Tonny is, I think, safe to take Scotland into the World Cup this time next year. But, anything less, and in particular if Finn Russell is not recalled, then I think Toony will be toast.

THIS LATEST Russellgate sequel – I've lost count of which one we are now up to by the way, has taken the shine off what should have been a special day for new Scotland Captain Jamie Ritchie.

It's fair to say, the captaincy has been coming the way of the Edinburgh flanker for some time; he's been one of those players who, from his first cap almost, had the aura of a man born to lead his country.

I congratulate him on his appointment and trust he has a long reign in the job. He certainly has a good leadership team around him in the dressing room, with at least four other guys who have captained Scotland there to assist him.