IN INDIVIDUAL sporting endeavour the ultimate target is obvious – the athlete sets out to be a World Champion and/or win an Olympic gold medal. In a team sport, the ultimate honour has to be a World Championship win. Except in football (or various codes) where, by and large the ultimate target has to be a pan-continental title.
We are now in our fourth decade of the Rugby World Cup, but, here in the Northern Hemisphere, there is still an element of giving the Guinness Six Nations equal standing. Not for me, sure it would be great to be looking down on the other five nations, but, I'm with Ali – nothing beats being “Champion of the whole wide world.”
This autumn we will embark on our tenth tilt at global domination. Our record to date is:
1987 – quarter-finals
1991 – fourth place
1995 – quarter-finals
1999 – quarter-finals
2003 – quarter-finals
2007 – quarter-finals
2011 – third in group
2015 – quarter-finals
2019 – third in group
If we rank ourselves as one of the top eight nations internationally, then we can claim, a 66.6% success rate in meeting our own minimum expectations. We are also, in terms of how far we have gone into World Cups, the eighth most-successful nation.
By the same measure we have over-achieved once – 11.1% success, thanks to our single semi-final appearance in 1991..
Twice in nine attempts – 22.2% of the time, we have under-achieved in the RWC. Worryingly, however, these under-achieving tournaments have been in two of the last three.
So, this year, we really need to get back to what we consider our par performance – getting to the last eight. However, thanks to a draw which was probably made far too far out from the actual tournament, we find ourselves in the same group as South Africa, the defending champions, and Ireland, the reigning Six Nations Champions and world ranked Number One Team.
The thing is, whereas in the past, the Saffers might have been unfamiliar foes, this time round, we know all about them – since we face their big players on a regular basis, in the BKT United Rugby Championship, or, when we encounter their European-based players in the European competitions.
I also have a feeling the Irish might well have committed a sin usually the province of Scottish football teams – getting it right a year early. That said, such is the depth of the wider Irish squad, should some of their more-experienced troops hit the downward slope between now and the kick-off in the RWC, they have battle-hardened replacements, ready to step in.
I think we are in a good position going into this World Cup. We are probably light in just one position – tight-head prop; otherwise we have options, and in one or two places, some very-good players will not make the final 31-strong squad, such is our depth.
We don't have too-many X-factor players, indeed, Finn Russell is perhaps the only current Scot who would be in the frame for a World XV. That said, we have a settled squad, who know each other, like each other and have a good squad ethic.
We have a settled Head Coach, who knows the job and he has a settled back-up team. Assuming we do not suffer any serious injuries to first-choice players between now and the tournament starting, we are in a better position than we have been in some previous World Cups.
The tournament in France this year will be our tenth tilt at the Rugby World Cup. Overall our finishing places, since the first tournament, in 1987, have been:
8th - 4th - 6th - 5th - 6th - 7th - 9th - 5th - 10th
In the Five or Six Nations tournaments in the spring of each of the RWC years, we had finished:
3rd - 3rd - 2nd - 1st - 4th - 6th - 5th - 6th - 5th
So, it would seem a good 5/6 Nations is no guarantee of a good World Cup – or vice versa.
What is interesting is, in the 5N/6N competitions in a World Cup year, our median performance is to win 39% of the games and finish in third or fourth place.
Then, come the World Cup, our median position is to win 56% of our games and finish in sixth or seventh place.
In the 5N/6N we are competing against other Tier One rugby nations, at the World Cup, we play Tier One and Tier Two nations. Our performances, when split into games against T1 or T2 nations are:
v Tier 1 nations: p. 18 – w. 2 – d. 1 – l 18 – 11.1% wins
v Tier 2 nations: p. 24 – w. 22 – d. 0 – l l2 - 91.7% wins
In nine previous World Cups, we have only once, in 1991, when we played all our group games in Scotland, won our group. To put our Rugby World Cup performances into boxing parlance – we are regular hopefuls, but, we have seldom been contenders.
These then are our KPIs – our Known Performance Indicators. We can expect to beat the Tier 2 nations we face, but, beating the Tier 1 nations at the RWC is a huge problem for us.
Our median performance under our last nine coaches, the only ones for whom Wikipedia offers figures which can be compared, shows our median winning percentage, in all games, is 45%.
Toony is statistically our most-successful coach, with a 55.5% winning percentage; however, in his only RWC to date, he did, by his own standards, under-perform, indeed, Scotland's tenth place finish in Japan was our worst in nine tournaments.
The draw for France 2023 has done him no favours – since we have been drawn in the same group as two of the four nations ranked above us in the World rankings.
We don't know who will make our squad for France, but we do know: of the 46 players who have been involved in Scotland training squads this season, 20 have been to a previous RWC – so this year's final squad is likely to be the most-experienced we have ever sent
Toony has said he would like to stay on as Coach after the RWC. This leaves The Murrayfield Junta in a quandary:
The big question for them now is: do we give Toony another contract, or do we let him go after the RWC?
Do they stick with a still relatively young coach, who has probably over-achieved, given the players at his disposal and the system within which he works?
Or do they look elsewhere in the hope of even better?
Some commentators are suggesting, the players have had six years of listening to Toony, they've got bored with the same old, same old and it is time we let them hear a new voice. But, which new voice?
FINALLY – I don't know who the lassie was who commentated on the Scotland Under-20 v Italy match, at Scotstoun, but, she was absolutely honking, in fact, she was so-bad, Colin Calder, of blessed memory, was better.
I am told, having a female commentator is all part of the BBC's obsession with ticking the correct boxes. Aye right, but, surely talent and competency is just as, if not more important.
The whole iplayer presentation screamed: “We are doing this as cheaply as we can get away with, and, in any case, it's just you Jocks and the Wops, so, to us in London, it doesn't matter.”
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