Feeling Good, But, A Possible Chill Is Coming

AFTER Week One of the Guinness 6 Nations, where stands Scotland? Well, obviously top of the table, but, this is Scotland we are discussing – for how long?

Blair Kinghorn completes his hat-trick on Saturday 

Received wisdom around the tournament is that there are a lot more home wins, but, on the opening weekend, two of the three games finished as away wins, might this unusual state of affairs continue? Time will tell, however, since Scotland has not had too many weeks at the top of the heap, let's enjoy it while it lasts. You never know, Edinburgh and Glasgow have good home records against the individual Irish provinces, why shouldn't the national side beat the men in green this coming weekend?

I accept, the late Italian renaissance, which saw them score three tries, was far from a big finish, but, given we were down to 14 men and had the game won in any case, I am not too worried. I also feel, English referees do not sit well with the Scottish playing style and we struggle to adapt to their in-built style of officiating.

I would not say Luke Pearce had a bad game, I simply feel the way English referees interpret things, particularly around the scrums and the close-quarter exchanges does not sit well with our style of play. In an ideal world, we would not have these differences in refereeing styles, but, we have to I feel do our homework better on upcoming match officials.

But, what of the rest? I would rather face the French second half and the Welsh first half teams from Friday night, while both against Ireland and England, we will need to be ready for a huge physical confrontation, but, at our very best, I think we can outflank both.

Ours was not a complete opening game performance, we can, and will have to, improve in a lot of areas, but, to see Finn and Hoggy back at their glorious best gives us hope, while young Blair Kinghorn arrived as a genuine star. Sam Johnston also had an excellent debut – I think we can go on to have a good 6 Nations.

We certainly needed Saturday's win, after the disappointments at Netherdale, Scotstoun and in Sydney in the lead-up. Onwards and upwards then.

GREGOR PAUL, when writing for Scotland On Sunday, was never, as far as I am aware, anywhere near the Sports Desk. Then, off he toddles to New Zealand and, the next thing we know, this proud Scot is the leading rugby writer for the New Zealand Herald. As such, he is the most-powerful Scottish rugby journalist on the planet, and handling that status well.

Gregor Paul

And, in his latest comment piece in the NZ Herald, he paints a worrying picture, because, seemingly, fewer Kiwi kids want to grow up to be All Blacks. As Gregor wrote:

“ Right now New Zealand rugby is bobbing along above the water, but there is a massive hole in the hull and just like the Titanic, the game here is in danger of sinking.

Just as it turned out that the Titanic wasn't too big to sink, New Zealand rugby is not too big to fail.”

He then goes on to quote some figures:

• In the last three years 3000 boys, playing rugby as 10-year-olds, had stopped playing by the time they were 13.
  
  
• Of those still playing at 13, more than half had given-up by the time they were 18.
  
  
• The downward trend has accelerated over the past three years: 10,000 9-year-olds playing in 2016, less than 9000 in 2018.
  
  
• 7500 12-year-olds playing in 2016, had become less than 7000 in 2018.
  
  
• In 2013 there were 225 school teams in Auckland, in 2018 that number had fallen to 181. And that number was swollen by a rise in the number of girls teams, offsetting a bigger drop in boys teams.

Gregor's analysis is, if this trend continues, the days of rugby being New Zealand's mass-participation game of choice may be over. Instead, it will be a niche game, played by elite-level players only – rather like American Football. And by the way, High School, Friday-night football, often featured on film and an iconic part of small-town American life, particularly in football-mad states like Texas, is also on the wane.

[A wee aside here – one of the planks on which rugby built itself up in America was the way it enabled college-level American football players, not considered good enough for the professional ranks of the NFL to continue to play a team sport after leaving college.]

Gregor believes, and he is not alone in this, that IF it comes to pass that this 12-nation World League does get going, and if it does pull off the rumoured megabucks TV deal for coverage, the NZRU's share of the pot will go to trying to staunch the exodus of “Nearly Men” All Blacks fringe players to big-money deals in France and England, rather than into infrastructure development – including grass roots participation.

This is not an issue the SRU is likely to have to address any time soon. Murrayfield lang syne accepted – just as the SFA had to over 100 years ago – that if a Scottish player received a big money offer from England, it was pointless trying to pay him to stay.

So, Finn Russell has gone, Stuart Hogg is going, as is Alex Dunbar. If he maintains his start to the 6 Nations, will Blair Kinghorn be next? And, if Scotland continues to excite as they are doing – how much longer can Murrayfield hold on to Gregor Townsend?

Perhaps, as Gregor Paul suggests in winding-up his piece, the truth is, rugby, long considered the ultimate players' team game, is morphing from a mass-participation sport, into a mass spectator one.

And if this is the case – what will the governing bodies such as the NZRU, the SRU and the others do, to ensure, this sea change can be managed for the long-term good of the game?