A Downbeat Aristotle Sends His Christmas Greetings

I CAN almost see and hear the likely comments on The Junta What's App or Zoom group this morning, (I'm not that good on social media or technology).

“Well done Mark old boy – I think you strangled the rebellion at birth.”

“Good show Graham, losing all those questions and points of order.”

“Nifty side step there JJ, not having to face the plebs, leave it to old Ian, it's why he sought high office.”

AGM 2020, parts i, ii and iii, safely negotiated, they can not break open the gin supply and toast having survived a dreadful year, before getting down to planning how to keep control of the RMS Scottish Rugby, as she sails on, through iceberg-littered seas.

I fear, things are going to get worse before they get better, and I certainly don't fancy seeing our game still controlled by these power-crazed control freaks, when we do emerge into calmer seas.

Our future is now, I feel, very-much depending on the Governance Review Group doing a proper, thorough job, coming up with the right upgrades and new developments, and – perhaps the hardest bit – getting them past the self-interested guys at the top. It will not be easy, but, I live in hope.

I hear, in particular, dear old “Blaikie,” who was spat out of the sausage machine under something of a Junta-generated cloud, is making good use of his recall and contributing fully to the Review. Always a mistake to let one who knows where some of the bodies are buried, and who put them there, back into circulation.

To use a phrase much-parroted by BTM insiders and critics alike, quite a few areas within Scottish Rugby are simply: “NOT FIT FOR PURPOSE.”

Principle among these disfunctional areas, for me, is the PR and Media Department, but, it's hard to shoot the messenger when so-many mixed messages are being put out, or not put out.

Young player development is a joke, at both initial sorting-out level and, further up the food chain with the under-performing Performance Department.

I think we've got too-many National Leagues and clubs, and while I still have high hopes for Super6 as a bridging tier between the better grass-roots players and full-time rugby, it's been, thus far a disaster, although not wholly of its own making.

We've seen our game become compartmentalised to a degree, and these differing compartments don't speak that frequently and clearly to each other.

Covid has offered us a great chance to sit down, take stock, and decide what we need to and want to change, sadly, we haven't taken advantage of this, and perhaps never will.

Like many in Scottish Rugby, I will be only too happy to see the back of 2020. I had hoped we could begin a return to normality in 2021, but, with these new variants of Covid on the loose, I am starting to fear we might have to write-off this season as well.

Already I am thinking:

• how many 28-0 results might we see during the Six Nations?

• With reports of new strains of Covid being identified in South Africa – is this Rainbow Cup such a good idea?

• Will their be a Lions Tour in 2021?

I really am channelling my inner Scrooge this year.

Any way, I am now taking a break until 2021. So, thanks to everyone who took the time to look at my haverings this year, in particular my hard-core of btl commenters. I don't always agree with you, but, enjoy the feedback.

Have a great Christmas, a Guid New Year and, I will see you again the other side of the bells.

Meantime, stay safe and follow the rules – even if you are a politician - or a member of The Junta.

Forget Scotland Jerseys - Produce Some 2020-21 Leavers Hoodies

WILL THE last Scottish player to leave the dressing room please put out the lights. That's my response to the wave of departures from the central pay roll:

• Jamie Bhatti – gone

• Adam Hastings – going

• Huw Jones – apparently going

• Duhan van der Merwe – apparently going

• So, the question is – who's next? 

  
  

  
  
  

  Jamie Bhatti - off to Bath

  picture by Craig Watson
  

I have a certain sympathy for Jamie Bhatti, who really needs far-m,ore game time than he is ever going to get at Edinburgh. Jamie is one of a number of young Scottish props being held back by being in the pay of the SRU, and badly in need of time at the coal face – but, that's the reality of only having two full-time professional teams.

The further reality is, regardless of Scottish Government largesse, the SRU is going to have to cut staff numbers, and that is bound to include players. But, when they really do get around to the hard choices of who goes and who stays – hopefully somebody like my old pal Dom will give me a bell. Like Ko Ko in The Mikado: “I've got a little list, and there's none of them be missed.”

With Adam Hastings departing for Gloucester, the word on the streets is that Duncan Weir might be coming home to Glasgow Warriors. This would be welcomed by the Warrior Nation, after all, he is one of their own and now arguably a better player than when he was allowed to flit along the M8 to Murrayfield.

The SRU's performance department honchos really need to devise a plan whereby their player rotation works better than it ever has. AS A PRIORITY - Explain to the body of the kirk what is meant to happen, then move heaven and earth to Captain Picard it and – make it so.

I had a wee look at the records when I saw news of Dunky's apparent return, it made interesting reading. Dunky was the Scotland Under-20 stand-off in 2010, since when the job has gone to:

• Harry Leonard – 2011

• Finn Russell Tommy Allen – 2012

• Alex Hagart – 2013

• Ben Chalmers – 2014

• Blair Kinghorn – 2015

• Adam Hastings – 2016

• Josh Henderson – 2017

• Ross Thompson – 2018

• Nathan Chamberlain – 2019.

Of those ten tens, three, Russell, Allen (for Italy) and Hastings have gone on to become international tens. Kinghorn has gone on to be an international full-back or winger, while both Leonard and Chamberlain have worn the ten shirt for Edinburgh (well in Chamberlain's case, usually the 22 or 23 shirt.

So, that's a 60% success rate in tyros training-on to become professionals – good by Scottish standards.

However, Weir will be 30 in May, so, probably a one contract signing. I would hope, as well as bringing-in Duncan, the Warriors management takes genuine steps to further integrate either Henderson or Thompson into their playing staff. Or are they eyeing-up some youngster in the South African schools system as a long-term project?

PART THREE of the protracted SRU AGM 2020 is due tonight; this promises to be the hardest oportion for The Junta to navigate their way through.

The ever-excellent TOL published a nice little primer on Monday, and it is to be hoped that some of the usual suspects get tore into the high heid yins – who will not be so-able this year to summon-up the usual pack of useful idiots from the Establishment Clubs, to derail and divert any criticism of the politburo.

The dogs on the street know the SRU are in trouble and facing a very-uncertain few years as we hopefully recover from Covid and try to move forward. I suppose it will be asking a bit much for TCD to suddenly become humble and admit, he may not have all the answers, while, if the body of the kirk is allowed to get their teeth into some aspects of the accounts and annual report, there coukld be some awkward moments for the high heid yins.

I am confident Scottish Rugby will come through the current crisis, but, better that the guys at the top table admit they have problems, soft-pedal on the bullshit and accept – things have to change, than that we get the usual stone-walling and bluster.

Give us some fresh ideas, and more-importantly, give us some hope for the future. At the moment Scottish Rugby is not in a good place, and, forrit tho' Ah canna see, Ah guess and fear.

Beauty May Be In The Eye Of The Beholder, But, That Was Ugly

I HAVE been hard on the SRU in recent posts – I believe, with justification. Our game is in a bad way, and far from where we would like it to be – the blame for which lies firmly in the camp of the BTM Junta.

However, I refuse to blame the players, who are simply doing their best. The Edinburgh players, for instance, certainly gave us all a boost with their gritty one-point win over Sale Sharks last night.

This was the final, and by a distance the worst, of the games I watched on BT Sport over a marathon session of rugby watching yesterday. To be honest, it was grim viewing, an arm wrestle between two poor teams, officiated over by a poor referee.

However, no Scottish team's win over an English team is ever a bad result – Edinburgh won ugly, but, they won, for which we should all be thankful. They, to my mind, deserved to win too; recovering from a piss-poor first half display, to dominate the second period, stick to their game plan and get their reward.

Having learned the game at Cumnock, I will not hear a word of criticism against Mark Bennett. But, as a Cumnock RFC man, I am entitled to say: “Marko – you were shite, but, you made amends with that try.” When he comes in at that angle, Mark is the best attacking centre in Scotland, he runs lines nobody else does.

Duhan van der Merwe was a disappointment. If he does want to swap Edinburgh for the bigger money in England, then it could be argued, Sale might be his destination of choice, with his brother already among a coterie of fellow Saffers at the club. So, a barn-storming: “Here I am, come and get me,” type performance was surely called for. Instead, he hid on the left wing the whole game.

Edinburgh had a few stand-outs. “Mish” was just Mish. I know the numbers 6 and 7 jerseys wil be the most-competitive to fill in next eyar's Lions Tour, but, when he plays like he did last night, Mish is definitely a contender.

Once again, we had proof, while he may not be a line-shattering ball carrier, Ben Toolis is, for me, by a distance, the best line-out operator in these islands, while as David Flatman – who knows what he is talking about – mentioned in commentary, Rory Sutherland is laying down a marker for the Lions' number 1 shirt. His technique at scrum time is impeccable.

I wonder about Sale, I feel their reliance on South Africans is not doing the club any good. To me, it seems if “Bish, bash, bosh” doesn't work, they don't have a Plan B.

We had another stand-out performance yesterday, from Rory Hutchinson for Northampton Saints against Leinster. He looked ready for a recall to the national side.

But, the match I enjoyed most was Clermont Auvergne v Munster. The hard-nosed approach of the old guard such as CJ Stander and Peter O'Mahoney got Munster over the line in a really-entertaining game.

I felt that match benefitted from a very-good refereeing performance from Matthew Carley. Mr Carley is not a referee I have usually much time for. If he was Scottish rather than English, he would not be getting anywhere close to officiating at this level. That said, I though he was better than I have ever seen him yesterday.

He communicated well with the players, he read the game well and, if he can maintain this standard, I might have to change my opinion of him. On the other hand, Roman Poite had a stinker at Sale – his failure to red card the Sale Saffer for that head shot on Mish being a particular low point. Perhaps a case of a French referee officiating in a game between an English team and a Scottish one, and coming into the game with the presumption – the English team is the better one, so I will reward them.

This afternoon was spent watching Harlequins v Racing 92. Highlight was seeing that obnoxious twat Chris Ashton costing 'Quins a late consolation try, with his petty late “tackle” - when he tried to drag Teddy Thomas back by his collar. The chalking-off of the “try” could perhaps only have been more-enjoyable, had it been Venus de Farrell who had been pinged.

I have previously likened Finn Russell to Jim Baxter, for his gallus swagger in games. I saw another football connection in this one – he's a wee bit like Andrés Iniesta, the “conductor” of the Barcelona golden Team's tiki-taka short passing game – in the way he brings-in team mates with short passes, made at the last possible second. Some of his kick passes at The Stoop – even when they didn't come off – were pure genius.

Mind you, from a Scotland point of view, wasn't it good to see the likes of Glen Young, James Lang and Scott Steele showing up so well in a well-beaten Quins side. They are getting more exposure in South-West London than they could possibly have hoped for inside the Murrayfield bubble.

FINALLY – so Huw Jones is the latest home-based Scot to look for a move to the greener pastures of the Gallagher Premiership. Well, good luck to the lad, but, I fear, once Brexit really starts to bite, cold reality might begin to affect the English club game,

So, I hope Huw's agent can get any deal done quickly. However, Jones going will create a vacancy, let's hope the SRU can encourage a young Scot to step-up and fill the vacancy.

I have said before and definitely believe, the problem with Scottish Rugby is not with talent – that we have. I think it's our coaching and player development systems which need to be overhauled if Scotland is to start moving forward.

Get rid of the “broken arrows” and start employing coaches who can bring our native talent through. It's not rocket science, or a case of throwing money at the problem.

Man The Lifeboats - We've Already Hit The Iceberg

RECEIVED WISDOM within the Scottish Rugby “family” is that, Open Rugby, since 1996, has been a disaster for the game in Scotland. OK, the high heid yins in the game back then made a mess of the transition, and, we've been stumbling along playing catch-up ever since.

Except, we've been losing ground and I must admit I didn't know how bad things had become, until I spent the last couple of days crunching the numbers. To best illustrate the mess we are in, here are a couple of tables I have been working on.

I looked at the Five Nations Championships, from 1947 until 1995 – the amateur era, then I looked at the Five Nations from 1996 until 1999 and the Six Nations from 2000. Be warned this does not make easy reading.

Table One – 1947 to 1995

Country	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Wins %
France	196	109	14	73	55.6
Wales	195	104	14	77	53.3
England	196	88	25	83	44.9
Scotland	195	73	11	111	37.4
Ireland	194	71	16	107	36.6

Table Two – 1996 to 2019

Country	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Wins %
England	116	81	2	33	69.8
France	116	72	2	42	62.1
Ireland	116	67	3	46	57.8
Wales	116	62	3	51	53.4
Scotland	116	36	3	77	31

In the amateur era we never finished higher than third in the Five Nations over each of the six decades I covered. We only had the two Grand Slams in that period – in 1984 and 1990 – and we've had none since.

Since 1947 there have been 27 Grand Slams won: 8 by Wales, 7 by both England and France, 3 by Ireland and 2 by Scotland. Apart from the five-way tie in 1973 and our two Grand Slam years, we haven't won the title at all and but for the increase to six nations which brought in the Italians, we would definitely be the basement boys of the top tier of European rugby.

Our decline since the game went open is obvious – we are losing ground to our traditional rivals. Particularly worrying, for me, is the fact – Ireland's results have improved by nearly 60% since 1996, while ours have worsened by almost 18%.

In the amateur era, France and Wales were the only countries with a better than 50% winning record. Today, each of our other four traditional opponents has won over 50% of their Six Nations games, we have only won 31%.

Yet, in the PRO14, our two full-time professional teams are holding their own.

All- Seasons PRO14 table

Sorted by final places	Sorted by % of games won
Leinster	Leinster
Munster	Munster
Ulster	Ulster
Scarlets	Scarlets
Glasgow	Glasgow
Ospreys	Ospreys
Cardiff Blues	Cardiff Blues
Edinburgh	Edinburgh
Connacht	Cheetahs
Cheetahs	Connacht
Newport Gwent Dragons	Newport Gwent Dragons
Benetton	Benetton
Zebre	Zebre
Southern Kings	Southern Kings

The four Irish Provinces have won 57% of their games, The two Scottish teams have won 50.75% or theirs. The four Welsh Regions have won 48.5% of their games; the two South African teams have won 26.9% of their games, while the two Italian teams have won 25.3% of their games.

At club level, we are lagging behind the Irish, but, not as far behind them as we are internationally, while we are ahead of the Welsh clubs. However, come the internationals, Wales is leaving us well adrift.

The SRU's management model calls for the Scotland national team to play attractive, winning rugby, and fill BT Murrayfield – thus giving the SRU the cash it needs to sustain the professional game, and grow the amateur one.

For this to work, our two full-time professional teams have to be competitive within the PRO14. This they are doing – Glasgow more-so than Edinburgh.

When it comes to being involved in the sharp end of the Celtic League – Warriors are right up there. Leinster have been a top four club in 16 of the league's 19 seasons; Munster have 15 top four finishes, Ulster have 11; then come Warriors, with 9 top four finishes.

However, when it comes to Europe – we lag behind.

In the Heineken Cup, during its various versions: Glasgow has been in 21 campaigns, but has only reached the quarter-finals three times, they have only won 46 of 129 games, a winning average of 35.6%.

Edinburgh has fought 18 Heineken Cup campaigns: reaching one semi-final and two quarter-finals, winning 42 of 110 games, for a 38% winning record.

In the lower-ranked European Challenge Cup, Edinburgh has mounted six campaigns, reaching one final and three quarter-finals, losing all three.

Glasgow has mounted three Challenge Cup campaigns, reaching the quarter-finals once. Glasgow has a 42.8% winning record at this level, and Edinburgh a 67% one.

Overall, and factoring in the contributions made in Europe by Border Reivers and Caledonian Reds, Scottish clubs have played 337 European games, winning 132, for a 39% wins record – made-up of a 34.3% winning record in the Heineken Cup and a 59% winning record in the Challenge Cup.

So, if we look at Scotland's record in the various competitions in which we have competed since 1996, in ascending order, it reads:

Competition	wins	second	semi-final	quarter-final	Wins %
League	1	2	6	2	50.75%
Challenge Cup		1		4	59.00%
Heineken Cup			1	5	34.30%
5/6 Nations	1	1	5*		31.00%
RWC				3	57.00%

The asterik over the 5/6Nations figures indicates the number of times we have finished third in the table.

Those Rugby World Cup figures are actually somewhat skewed, by the presence of Tier Two nations in the competition.

Against Tier One nations, among whom I include Argentina – since they compete in the Southern Hemisphere Championship, their equivalent of our Six Nations – our record since the game went open in 1996 is poor. In the six Rugby World Cups of the Open Era, we have lost all 11 of the matches we have played against Tier One nations. Against the Tier Two nations, we have won 16 of the 17 games played.

To sum-up: The story of Scottish Rugby since the game went open in 1996 is one of steady decline. We were seldom “The team to beat” in the amateur era, and when we were that team, it was at a time before living memory; but, we were competitive – nobody could treat Scotland as: “We're going to win today,” before the kick-off.

However, while other countries, notably Ireland, have got their act together in the open era and improved their team and their record, we have gone backwards. It is to be hoped the Governance Review, currently underway, will address the issues which are causing our decline, so we can turn things around. Otherwise, we will be following Scottish Football down among the “diddy countries.”

Doing nothing – or just re-arranging the deckchairs - is not an option. For the SRU, the decision to go open in 1995 was the iceberg.