Man The Lifeboats - We've Already Hit The Iceberg

RECEIVED WISDOM within the Scottish Rugby “family” is that, Open Rugby, since 1996, has been a disaster for the game in Scotland. OK, the high heid yins in the game back then made a mess of the transition, and, we've been stumbling along playing catch-up ever since.

Except, we've been losing ground and I must admit I didn't know how bad things had become, until I spent the last couple of days crunching the numbers. To best illustrate the mess we are in, here are a couple of tables I have been working on.

I looked at the Five Nations Championships, from 1947 until 1995 – the amateur era, then I looked at the Five Nations from 1996 until 1999 and the Six Nations from 2000. Be warned this does not make easy reading.

Table One – 1947 to 1995

Country	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Wins %
France	196	109	14	73	55.6
Wales	195	104	14	77	53.3
England	196	88	25	83	44.9
Scotland	195	73	11	111	37.4
Ireland	194	71	16	107	36.6

Table Two – 1996 to 2019

Country	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Wins %
England	116	81	2	33	69.8
France	116	72	2	42	62.1
Ireland	116	67	3	46	57.8
Wales	116	62	3	51	53.4
Scotland	116	36	3	77	31

In the amateur era we never finished higher than third in the Five Nations over each of the six decades I covered. We only had the two Grand Slams in that period – in 1984 and 1990 – and we've had none since.

Since 1947 there have been 27 Grand Slams won: 8 by Wales, 7 by both England and France, 3 by Ireland and 2 by Scotland. Apart from the five-way tie in 1973 and our two Grand Slam years, we haven't won the title at all and but for the increase to six nations which brought in the Italians, we would definitely be the basement boys of the top tier of European rugby.

Our decline since the game went open is obvious – we are losing ground to our traditional rivals. Particularly worrying, for me, is the fact – Ireland's results have improved by nearly 60% since 1996, while ours have worsened by almost 18%.

In the amateur era, France and Wales were the only countries with a better than 50% winning record. Today, each of our other four traditional opponents has won over 50% of their Six Nations games, we have only won 31%.

Yet, in the PRO14, our two full-time professional teams are holding their own.

All- Seasons PRO14 table

Sorted by final places	Sorted by % of games won
Leinster	Leinster
Munster	Munster
Ulster	Ulster
Scarlets	Scarlets
Glasgow	Glasgow
Ospreys	Ospreys
Cardiff Blues	Cardiff Blues
Edinburgh	Edinburgh
Connacht	Cheetahs
Cheetahs	Connacht
Newport Gwent Dragons	Newport Gwent Dragons
Benetton	Benetton
Zebre	Zebre
Southern Kings	Southern Kings

The four Irish Provinces have won 57% of their games, The two Scottish teams have won 50.75% or theirs. The four Welsh Regions have won 48.5% of their games; the two South African teams have won 26.9% of their games, while the two Italian teams have won 25.3% of their games.

At club level, we are lagging behind the Irish, but, not as far behind them as we are internationally, while we are ahead of the Welsh clubs. However, come the internationals, Wales is leaving us well adrift.

The SRU's management model calls for the Scotland national team to play attractive, winning rugby, and fill BT Murrayfield – thus giving the SRU the cash it needs to sustain the professional game, and grow the amateur one.

For this to work, our two full-time professional teams have to be competitive within the PRO14. This they are doing – Glasgow more-so than Edinburgh.

When it comes to being involved in the sharp end of the Celtic League – Warriors are right up there. Leinster have been a top four club in 16 of the league's 19 seasons; Munster have 15 top four finishes, Ulster have 11; then come Warriors, with 9 top four finishes.

However, when it comes to Europe – we lag behind.

In the Heineken Cup, during its various versions: Glasgow has been in 21 campaigns, but has only reached the quarter-finals three times, they have only won 46 of 129 games, a winning average of 35.6%.

Edinburgh has fought 18 Heineken Cup campaigns: reaching one semi-final and two quarter-finals, winning 42 of 110 games, for a 38% winning record.

In the lower-ranked European Challenge Cup, Edinburgh has mounted six campaigns, reaching one final and three quarter-finals, losing all three.

Glasgow has mounted three Challenge Cup campaigns, reaching the quarter-finals once. Glasgow has a 42.8% winning record at this level, and Edinburgh a 67% one.

Overall, and factoring in the contributions made in Europe by Border Reivers and Caledonian Reds, Scottish clubs have played 337 European games, winning 132, for a 39% wins record – made-up of a 34.3% winning record in the Heineken Cup and a 59% winning record in the Challenge Cup.

So, if we look at Scotland's record in the various competitions in which we have competed since 1996, in ascending order, it reads:

Competition	wins	second	semi-final	quarter-final	Wins %
League	1	2	6	2	50.75%
Challenge Cup		1		4	59.00%
Heineken Cup			1	5	34.30%
5/6 Nations	1	1	5*		31.00%
RWC				3	57.00%

The asterik over the 5/6Nations figures indicates the number of times we have finished third in the table.

Those Rugby World Cup figures are actually somewhat skewed, by the presence of Tier Two nations in the competition.

Against Tier One nations, among whom I include Argentina – since they compete in the Southern Hemisphere Championship, their equivalent of our Six Nations – our record since the game went open in 1996 is poor. In the six Rugby World Cups of the Open Era, we have lost all 11 of the matches we have played against Tier One nations. Against the Tier Two nations, we have won 16 of the 17 games played.

To sum-up: The story of Scottish Rugby since the game went open in 1996 is one of steady decline. We were seldom “The team to beat” in the amateur era, and when we were that team, it was at a time before living memory; but, we were competitive – nobody could treat Scotland as: “We're going to win today,” before the kick-off.

However, while other countries, notably Ireland, have got their act together in the open era and improved their team and their record, we have gone backwards. It is to be hoped the Governance Review, currently underway, will address the issues which are causing our decline, so we can turn things around. Otherwise, we will be following Scottish Football down among the “diddy countries.”

Doing nothing – or just re-arranging the deckchairs - is not an option. For the SRU, the decision to go open in 1995 was the iceberg.